---
title: "KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/krg-declares-independence-from-iraq-by-december-31
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 273246.94
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T15:27:43+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/krg-declares-independence-from-iraq-by-december-31
---

# KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?

Live · $273,247 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.

A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.

The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 93% | 94¢ on Polymarket | 94¢ |
| Yes | 7% | 8.2¢ on Polymarket | 8.2¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/5532?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/krg-declares-independence-from-iraq-by-december-31.

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