---
title: "Lai Ching-te departure announced? — Lai Ching-te Exit Date"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/lai-ching-te-departure-announced-lai-ching-te-exit-date
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2028-01-01T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 18400.38
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T09:58:20+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/lai-ching-te-departure-announced-lai-ching-te-exit-date
---

# Lai Ching-te departure announced? — Lai Ching-te Exit Date

Live · $18,400 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

An announcement that Lai Ching-te will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. If Lai Ching-te leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before January 1, 2028 | 30% | 34¢ on Kalshi | 34¢ |
| Before July 1, 2027 | 12% | 15¢ on Kalshi | 15¢ |
| Before January 1, 2027 | 4% | 7.7¢ on Kalshi | 7.7¢ |
| Before July 1, 2026 | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/480?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/lai-ching-te-departure-announced-lai-ching-te-exit-date.

BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.