---
title: "Larger Senate margin: Hinson or Marshall? — On Nov 3, 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/larger-senate-margin-hinson-or-marshall-on-nov-3-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-12-07T14:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 20896.21
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T05:30:12+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/larger-senate-margin-hinson-or-marshall-on-nov-3-2026
---

# Larger Senate margin: Hinson or Marshall? — On Nov 3, 2026

Live · $20,896 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

Each candidate's margin is their percentage of the total votes cast in their U.S. Senate race minus the percentage received by the highest-finishing other candidate in that race, calculated from the certified results. A margin is negative if the candidate does not finish first. Total votes cast include write-in votes reported in the certified results. The difference between the two margins is rounded to two decimal places. A difference of exactly 0.00 resolves Hinson Yes.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Hinson | 94% | 98¢ on Kalshi | 98¢ |
| Roger Marshall | 7% | 9¢ on Kalshi | 9¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/979426?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/larger-senate-margin-hinson-or-marshall-on-nov-3-2026).

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