---
title: "Lebanese general election winner? — In 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/lebanese-general-election-winner-in-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2028-05-11T03:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 28890.08
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T11:34:59+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/lebanese-general-election-winner-in-2026
---

# Lebanese general election winner? — In 2026

Live · $28,890 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.

This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.

Postponed elections: Contract remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Election Postponed Beyond Expiration | 71% | 74¢ on Kalshi | 74¢ |
| Lebanese Forces | 12% | 16¢ on Kalshi | 16¢ |
| Amal Movement | 10% | 13¢ on Kalshi | 13¢ |
| FPM | 5% | 9.2¢ on Kalshi | 9.2¢ |
| Hezbollah | 4% | 6.3¢ on Kalshi | 6.3¢ |
| PSP | — | — | — |
| Kataeb | — | — | — |
| Tashnag | — | — | — |
| Marada Movement | — | — | — |
| Independence Movement | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/665734?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/lebanese-general-election-winner-in-2026.

BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.