---
title: "Liu vs Simes"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/liu-vs-simes
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-10-01T03:11:57+00:00
total_volume_usd: 2828663.42
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket", "Polymarket US"]
categories: ["Sports", "Tennis"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T09:37:39+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/liu-vs-simes
---

# Liu vs Simes

Settled · kickoff 2026-09-30 00:00 UTC · $2,828,663 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US

## Result

**Ashleigh Simes** won. Settled 2026-10-01.

## About

This event centers on a Round of 16 match at the W35 Wagga Wagga, an ITF Women's tournament, pitting Yuhan Liu against Ashleigh Simes. Each market resolves to the player who advances; walkovers and non-starts generally resolve 50-50 on Polymarket, while Kalshi's rules push cancellations to $0.50 and treat in-match retirements as a loss for the withdrawing player. Alongside the straight match winner, the listings include ancillary totals markets (over/under lines on games) that are already pricing near their extremes.

Ashleigh Simes is the clear favourite to advance, with a cross-platform consensus of 92.5%. Pricing is tight at the top: Polymarket has her at 99.9% and Kalshi at 99.0%, while Polymarket US sits noticeably lower at 94.0%. Correspondingly, Yuhan Liu is quoted at just 0.1% on Polymarket and 1.0% on Kalshi, but a comparatively generous 9.0% on Polymarket US. Liquidity is heavily concentrated on Kalshi, which accounts for essentially all of the $2.83M in volume on the event.

The cross-platform takeaway: all venues agree Simes is the heavy favourite, but Polymarket US is the clear outlier, pricing Liu several points higher than Polymarket or Kalshi.

_AI-written summary written 2026-10-01; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- Completed Match — 2 outcomes
- W35 Wagga Wagga: Yuhan Liu vs Ashleigh Simes Set 1 Winner — 2 outcomes
- W35 Wagga Wagga: Yuhan Liu vs Ashleigh Simes Set 2 Winner — 2 outcomes
- W35 Wagga Wagga: Yuhan Liu vs Ashleigh Simes Total Sets: O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes
- W35 Wagga Wagga: Yuhan Liu vs Ashleigh Simes Set 1 O/U 8.5 — 2 outcomes
- W35 Wagga Wagga: Yuhan Liu vs Ashleigh Simes Set 1 O/U 9.5 — 2 outcomes
- W35 Wagga Wagga: Yuhan Liu vs Ashleigh Simes Set 1 O/U 10.5 — 2 outcomes
- W35 Wagga Wagga: Yuhan Liu vs Ashleigh Simes Set 2 O/U 8.5 — 2 outcomes
- W35 Wagga Wagga: Yuhan Liu vs Ashleigh Simes Set 2 O/U 9.5 — 2 outcomes
- W35 Wagga Wagga: Yuhan Liu vs Ashleigh Simes Set 2 O/U 10.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 21.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 22.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 23.5 — 2 outcomes
- W35 Wagga Wagga: Yuhan Liu vs Ashleigh Simes Set Handicap +/-1.5 — 2 outcomes
- W35 Wagga Wagga: Yuhan Liu vs Ashleigh Simes Set Handicap +/-1.5 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/673983?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/667942?via=md)
- [Polymarket US](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/668347?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/liu-vs-simes.

BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.