---
title: "Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Karen Bass) — On Nov 3, 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/los-angeles-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory-karen-bass-on-nov-3-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-11-03T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 6143.71
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T05:20:33+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/los-angeles-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory-karen-bass-on-nov-3-2026
---

# Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Karen Bass) — On Nov 3, 2026

Live · $6,144 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

The margin of victory is the vote share received by Karen Bass minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Karen Bass loses. If Karen Bass wins, the margin will be positive; if Karen Bass loses, the margin will be negative; if Karen Bass ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Karen Bass runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karen Bass, ≥2% | 29% | 33¢ on Kalshi | 33¢ |
| Karen Bass, ≥4% | 20% | 24¢ on Kalshi | 24¢ |
| Karen Bass, ≥6% | — | — | — |
| Karen Bass, ≥8% | — | — | — |
| Karen Bass, ≥10% | 9% | 12¢ on Kalshi | 12¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/16688?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/los-angeles-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory-karen-bass-on-nov-3-2026.

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