---
title: "Ma vs Kudermetova"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/ma-vs-kudermetova
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-09-30T04:20:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-09-30T23:59:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-09-30T07:10:16+00:00
total_volume_usd: 1402635.09
venues: ["Kalshi", "Novig", "Polymarket US"]
categories: ["Sports", "Tennis"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T13:42:37+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/ma-vs-kudermetova
---

# Ma vs Kudermetova

Settled · kickoff 2026-09-30 04:20 UTC · $1,402,635 traded · listed on Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket US

## Result

**Polina Kudermetova** won. Settled 2026-09-30.

## About

This market covers a first-round WTA Beijing 2026 singles match between Yexin Ma and Polina Kudermetova, with a range of derivative markets — moneyline, set winners, handicap spreads and totals — spread across Kalshi, Polymarket US and Novig. The bulk of the liquidity sits in Kalshi's main match-winner book, which alone accounts for more than $1.3 million in volume.

Kudermetova is the clear favourite to win the match, with a consensus implied probability of 97.5% and Kalshi pricing her at 99.0%. Ma is treated as a heavy underdog at roughly 2.5% on both Kalshi and Polymarket US. The set markets reinforce the same story: Kudermetova is priced around 99.0% to take set one on Kalshi and 90.0% to take set two, while the -1.5 set handicap sits near 84.0% consensus, suggesting the market expects a straight-sets win. Ma's +1.5 handicap trades around 16.0%.

The one glaring discrepancy comes from Novig's moneyline, which shows Kudermetova at just 30.0% and Ma at 70.0% — effectively inverted versus Kalshi and Polymarket US, producing a 3.25-point cross-platform spread on the consensus. Aside from that Novig quote, the platforms agree that Kudermetova is an overwhelming favourite.

_AI-written summary written 2026-09-30; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- Spread: Polina Kudermetova −7.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 17.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 22.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 27.5 — 2 outcomes
- Set 1 Winner — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 24.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 25.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread: Polina Kudermetova −4.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 21.5 — 2 outcomes
- Polina Kudermetova by over 1.5 sets — 2 outcomes
- Spread: Polina Kudermetova −1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 23.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread: Yexin Ma −1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Yexin Ma by over 1.5 sets — 2 outcomes
- Spread: Yexin Ma −4.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread: Yexin Ma −7.5 — 2 outcomes
- Kudermetova wins 2-0 — 2 outcomes
- Kudermetova wins 2-1 — 2 outcomes
- Ma wins 2-0 — 2 outcomes
- Ma wins 2-1 — 2 outcomes
- Set 1 Winner — 2 outcomes
- Set 2 Winner — 4 outcomes
- Over 2.5 sets — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/666073?via=md)
- [Novig](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/666412?via=md)
- [Polymarket US](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/666312?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/ma-vs-kudermetova.

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