---
title: "Maine Senate winner? (Party) — In 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/maine-senate-winner-party-in-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-11-03T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 8229219.66
venues: ["Gemini", "Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T11:37:42+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/maine-senate-winner-party-in-2026
---

# Maine Senate winner? (Party) — In 2026

Live · $8,229,220 traded · listed on Gemini, Kalshi

## About

The 2026 U.S. Senate race in Maine is being traded as a party-outcome market, resolving to whichever candidate wins the general election. Kalshi carries the bulk of activity, with roughly $3.94 million in volume and $2.13 million in liquidity, while Gemini has drawn only about $1,097 in volume so far. Named contenders quoted across the two venues include Democrat Troy Jackson, Republican incumbent Susan Collins, and — on Gemini's board only — Graham Platner, Janet Mills, and Tucker Favreau, each currently priced at 0.0%.

Troy Jackson is the consensus favourite at 65.5%, sitting at 66.0% on Kalshi and 73.0% on Gemini. Susan Collins trails as the clear second choice, priced at 35.0% on Kalshi and 42.0% on Gemini, for a consensus of 34.5%. The roughly 31-point gap between Jackson and Collins on the aggregated view signals traders lean toward a Democratic pickup, though Collins remains materially in the running.

The most notable cross-platform spread is on Jackson himself, whom Gemini prices seven points higher than Kalshi (73.0% vs 66.0%); Collins shows a similar gap in the opposite direction. Overall, both venues agree Jackson is favoured, but the thinly traded Gemini book is more bullish on the frontrunner than the deeper Kalshi market.

_AI-written summary written 2026-08-21; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Gemini | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Jackson | 57% | 57¢ on Kalshi | 59¢ | 57¢ |
| Susan Collins | 45% | 44¢ on Kalshi | 48¢ | 44¢ |
| Janet Mills | — | — | — | — |
| Graham Platner | — | — | — | — |
| Tucker Favreau | — | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Gemini](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/300662?via=md)
- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/1874?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/maine-senate-winner-party-in-2026.

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