---
title: "Max Holloway vs Conor McGregor"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/max-holloway-vs-conor-mcgregor
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-11T22:00:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-07-12T06:38:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-12T04:06:07+00:00
total_volume_usd: 18963913.82
venues: ["Azuro", "Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "MMA"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T16:34:10+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/max-holloway-vs-conor-mcgregor
---

# Max Holloway vs Conor McGregor

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-11 22:00 UTC · $18,963,914 traded · listed on Azuro, Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**Max Holloway** won. Settled 2026-07-12.

## About

UFC 329 pits Max Holloway against Conor McGregor in a welterweight main card bout scheduled for July 11, 2026, with prediction markets pricing both the winner and a range of round-by-round and over/under props. Polymarket resolves the headline market on the official UFC winner declaration, with a draw, no contest, or postponement beyond July 25 resolving 50-50. Kalshi lists round-of-finish markets, while Azuro carries its own moneyline.

Holloway is the clear favourite at a 72.0% consensus, priced at 72.0% on Polymarket and 70.9% on Azuro. McGregor sits at 31.7% consensus, with Azuro offering him at 31.7% versus 29.0% on Polymarket — a 2.65-point spread and the widest cross-platform gap in the event. Kalshi's round markets imply the fight is more likely than not to end early: 71.0% chance it finishes before round 5, 62.0% before round 4, 43.0% before round 3, and 24.0% before round 2.

Liquidity is heavily concentrated on Polymarket, which accounts for essentially all of the roughly $7.1M in volume. The cross-platform takeaway: markets align on Holloway as a solid favourite of roughly 40 points over McGregor, with only minor pricing differences between Polymarket and Azuro on the moneyline.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-11; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- Round of Finish — 4 outcomes
- Fight to Go the Distance? — 2 outcomes
- Fight won by KO/TKO? — 2 outcomes
- Holloway to win by KO/TKO? — 2 outcomes
- McGregor to win by KO/TKO? — 2 outcomes
- Fight won by submission? — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 3.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 4.5 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Azuro](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/22799?via=md)
- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/13044?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/5054?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/max-holloway-vs-conor-mcgregor.

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