---
title: "Meta's \"Watermelon\" model released by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/metas-watermelon-model-released-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-11-30T23:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 89883.28
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T09:37:56+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/metas-watermelon-model-released-by
---

# Meta's "Watermelon" model released by...?

Live · $89,883 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## October 15

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 59% | 60¢ on Polymarket | 60¢ |
| No | 42% | 43¢ on Polymarket | 43¢ |

## Other markets

- September 30 — 2 outcomes
- October 31 — 2 outcomes
- November 30 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/435911?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/metas-watermelon-model-released-by.

BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.