---
title: "Meta's Watermelon Model: Text Arena Debut?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/metas-watermelon-model-text-arena-debut
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-06-30T23:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 2531.63
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T12:04:28+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/metas-watermelon-model-text-arena-debut
---

# Meta's Watermelon Model: Text Arena Debut?

Live · $2,532 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Meta "Watermelon" model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.

A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered.

If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard.

A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

_From Polymarket's listing._

## 1500+

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 64% | 76¢ on Polymarket | 76¢ |
| Yes | 37% | 49¢ on Polymarket | 49¢ |

## Other markets

- 1480+ — 2 outcomes
- 1490+ — 2 outcomes
- 1505+ — 2 outcomes
- 1510+ — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/650767?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/metas-watermelon-model-text-arena-debut.

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