---
title: "Meta's Watermelon released on...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/metas-watermelon-released-on
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-10-31T23:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 37061.83
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T09:42:51+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/metas-watermelon-released-on
---

# Meta's Watermelon released on...?

Live · $37,062 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's "Watermelon" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," is made available to the general public.

A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| No release by October 31 | 25% | 26¢ on Polymarket | 26¢ |
| October 28 | 9% | 10¢ on Polymarket | 10¢ |
| October 20 | 9% | 9.9¢ on Polymarket | 9.9¢ |
| October 21 | 9% | 9¢ on Polymarket | 9¢ |
| October 26 | 6% | 7.4¢ on Polymarket | 7.4¢ |
| October 11 | 5% | 10¢ on Polymarket | 10¢ |
| October 14 | 5% | 8.1¢ on Polymarket | 8.1¢ |
| October 29 | 5% | 7.5¢ on Polymarket | 7.5¢ |
| October 15 | 5% | 8.5¢ on Polymarket | 8.5¢ |
| October 23 | 5% | 7¢ on Polymarket | 7¢ |
| October 9 | 4% | 8¢ on Polymarket | 8¢ |
| October 12 | 4% | 7¢ on Polymarket | 7¢ |
| October 22 | 4% | 6.5¢ on Polymarket | 6.5¢ |
| October 10 | 3% | 6.7¢ on Polymarket | 6.7¢ |
| October 30 | 3% | 5.9¢ on Polymarket | 5.9¢ |
| October 31 | 2% | 3.3¢ on Polymarket | 3.3¢ |
| October 18 | 1% | 1.9¢ on Polymarket | 1.9¢ |
| October 24 | 1% | 1.9¢ on Polymarket | 1.9¢ |
| October 13 | 0.5% | 1¢ on Polymarket | 1¢ |
| October 16 | 0.5% | 1¢ on Polymarket | 1¢ |
| October 19 | 0.5% | 1¢ on Polymarket | 1¢ |
| October 25 | 0.5% | 1¢ on Polymarket | 1¢ |
| October 27 | 0.5% | 1¢ on Polymarket | 1¢ |
| October 17 | 0.5% | 0.9¢ on Polymarket | 0.9¢ |
| On or prior to October 1 | — | — | — |
| October 2 | — | — | — |
| October 3 | — | — | — |
| October 4 | — | — | — |
| October 5 | — | — | — |
| October 6 | — | — | — |
| October 7 | — | — | — |
| October 8 | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/652881?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/metas-watermelon-released-on.

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