---
title: "Miami vs Milwaukee"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/miami-vs-milwaukee
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-17T23:40:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-07-18T05:17:37+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-18T02:59:47+00:00
total_volume_usd: 7011261.84
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "Baseball"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T15:03:17+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/miami-vs-milwaukee
---

# Miami vs Milwaukee

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-17 23:40 UTC · $7,011,262 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**Milwaukee** won. Settled 2026-07-18.

## About

This July 17 matchup at American Family Field pits the Miami Marlins against the Milwaukee Brewers in the first game of a three-game series. The core Kalshi market — whether Miami wins outright — has the Marlins as a modest favourite at 46.0%, with Milwaukee sitting at 40.0%, implying a roughly six-point edge for Miami despite playing on the road. That gap is narrow enough to reflect genuine uncertainty, and it stands in contrast to traditional moneyline pricing: sportsbooks opened the Brewers as -150 favourites, with the over/under set at 8 runs.

The broader context helps explain the relatively tight market. The Marlins enter on a three-game losing streak, while Milwaukee is itself looking to bounce back from a shock 3-0 series loss in Pittsburgh. Despite that sweep, the Brewers remain five games clear at the top of the NL Central. On the mound, Sandy Alcantara (10-5, 3.99 ERA) starts for Miami against Milwaukee's Logan Henderson (3-1, 3.18 ERA). The Brewers also carry the best team ERA in the NL at 3.48, giving them a structural pitching edge. Scoring is expected to stay low: the market prices over 4.5 total runs at just 63.0% and over 5.5 at 46.0%. Milwaukee winning by more than 3.5 runs sits at only 11.0%, signalling that even Brewers backers anticipate a close game. Coverage is concentrated almost entirely on Kalshi, with over $1.37M in volume on the moneyline alone, and Polymarket's small liquidity pools show no meaningful spread to arbitrage across platforms.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-18; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- Total Runs — 11 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Total — 7 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Winner: Miami Marlins — 2 outcomes
- Spread — 6 outcomes
- Strikeouts — 15 outcomes
- Outs Recorded — 2 outcomes
- Brice Turang: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Team Total — 14 outcomes
- First 5 Innings — 3 outcomes
- First 3 Innings — 3 outcomes
- Total Bases — 70 outcomes
- Stolen Bases — 18 outcomes
- RBIs — 40 outcomes
- Hits + Runs + RBIs — 90 outcomes
- Home Runs — 34 outcomes
- Hits — 57 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Winner: Milwaukee Brewers — 2 outcomes
- Brice Turang: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Winner: Draw — 2 outcomes
- Christian Yelich: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Christian Yelich: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Garrett Mitchell: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Garrett Mitchell: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Griffin Conine: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Griffin Conine: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Heriberto Hernández: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Heriberto Hernández: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Jackson Chourio: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Jackson Chourio: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Jake Bauers: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Jake Bauers: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Kyle Stowers: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Kyle Stowers: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Otto Lopez: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Otto Lopez: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- William Contreras: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- William Contreras: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Logan Henderson: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 — 2 outcomes
- Logan Henderson: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 — 2 outcomes
- Logan Henderson: Strikeouts O/U 5.5 — 2 outcomes
- … and 3 more

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/34034?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/42909?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/miami-vs-milwaukee.

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