---
title: "Miami vs New York M"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/miami-vs-new-york-m-kalshi-f77a0ac8
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-30T23:10:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-08-06T23:10:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-31T03:09:31+00:00
total_volume_usd: 12322200.43
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "Baseball"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T13:41:46+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/miami-vs-new-york-m-kalshi-f77a0ac8
---

# Miami vs New York M

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-30 23:10 UTC · $12,322,200 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**New York Mets** won. Settled 2026-07-31.

## About

This game between the Miami Marlins and New York Mets at Citi Field on July 30 is the opener of a four-game series, with markets spanning the moneyline, run totals, spread, and an extensive array of player props across Kalshi and Polymarket. The moneyline is the anchor market: on Kalshi, Miami is favoured at 60.0%, matched identically on Polymarket, giving a rock-solid consensus with zero cross-platform spread — an unusually tight alignment across two platforms totalling over $2.3 million in moneyline volume alone.

The Marlins' edge reflects sharply contrasting momentum. Miami climbed back over .500 by completing a three-game sweep of the Philadelphia Phillies, overcoming a six-run deficit in an 8-6 victory. That sweep pulled the Marlins within two games of the Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks in the race for the final two NL wild-card spots. The Mets, by contrast, have endured several miserable months and sit fifth in the NL East, nine games behind both Miami and Washington. New York is just 24-30 at Citi Field this year. On the pitching front, Eury Pérez (5-8, 3.56 ERA) starts for Miami against rookie right-hander Nolan McLean (7-7, 3.32) of New York. The Kalshi strikeout market on McLean pegs him at 94.0% to reach four punchouts and 88.0% for six, reflecting strong confidence in his workload. The run-total markets lean toward a lower-scoring game, with Kalshi pricing the over at 64.0% for 4.5+ combined runs. Both Kalshi and Polymarket agree on Miami as the 60.0% favourite, with no cross-platform spread on any major market, making this one of the most consistently priced games on the board.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-31; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- First 5 Innings Winner: Miami Marlins — 2 outcomes
- Total Runs — 11 outcomes
- Team Total — 14 outcomes
- Spread — 6 outcomes
- Spread -1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 7.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 3.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 4.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 5.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 6.5 — 2 outcomes
- Extra Innings — 2 outcomes
- Spread -2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 8.5 — 2 outcomes
- A.J. Ewing: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Outs Recorded — 2 outcomes
- Strikeouts — 16 outcomes
- Hits — 3 outcomes
- Total Bases — 66 outcomes
- Hits + Runs + RBIs — 64 outcomes
- Home Runs — 34 outcomes
- Stolen Bases — 17 outcomes
- RBIs — 36 outcomes
- First 7 Innings — 3 outcomes
- Jared Young: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Jared Young: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Liam Hicks: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Liam Hicks: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Tyrone Taylor: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Tyrone Taylor: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Xavier Edwards: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Xavier Edwards: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Jakob Marsee: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Jakob Marsee: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Joe Mack: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Joe Mack: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Luis Robert Jr.: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Luis Robert Jr.: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Marcus Semien: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Marcus Semien: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- … and 28 more

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/127537?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/92280?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/miami-vs-new-york-m-kalshi-f77a0ac8.

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