---
title: "NASCAR Cup Series Champion"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/nascar-cup-series-champion-nascar-cup-series
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-11-15T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 5207172.06
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket US"]
categories: ["Sports"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T12:27:12+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/nascar-cup-series-champion-nascar-cup-series
---

# NASCAR Cup Series Champion

Live · $5,207,172 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket US

## About

The market covers the outright winner of the NASCAR Cup Series championship, with the season running from early February to mid-November 2026. Each outcome represents a specific driver lifting the title; the field is broad, with more than 35 drivers priced across Kalshi and Polymarket US. Kalshi carries essentially all of the liquidity, with roughly $4.1 million in volume and $2.6 million in resting depth, while Polymarket US shows quotes but no recorded volume in this snapshot.

Denny Hamlin is the clear favourite at a 40.0% consensus, priced at 43.0% on Polymarket US and 41.0% on Kalshi. That is a substantial gap over the next tier: Ryan Blaney at 10.5%, Tyler Reddick at 9.0%, and Christopher Bell at 8.0%. Ty Gibbs (7.5%), Kyle Larson and Chase Briscoe (both 5.5%) round out the contenders priced above the pack.

Cross-platform spreads are mostly modest at the top, but longshots diverge sharply: Polymarket US floors many drivers such as Zane Smith, John Hunter Nemechek, Bubba Wallace and Connor Zilisch at 4.0%, while Kalshi prices the same names at 1.0%, a 3-point gap. Overall, the two venues agree Hamlin is the runaway favourite and differ mainly on how much residual probability to assign to the long tail.

_AI-written summary written 2026-08-20; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | 44% | 43¢ on Kalshi | 43¢ | 50¢ |
| Denny Hamlin | 26% | 27¢ on Polymarket US | 29¢ | 27¢ |
| Christopher Bell | 12% | 11¢ on Kalshi | 11¢ | 17¢ |
| Joey Logano | 7% | 6¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ | 11¢ |
| Ryan Blaney | 6% | 7¢ on Kalshi | 7¢ | 8¢ |
| Tyler Reddick | 4% | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | 5¢ |
| Chase Briscoe | 3% | 4¢ on Polymarket US | 4¢ | 4¢ |
| Ty Gibbs | 2% | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | 2¢ |
| Bubba Wallace | 2% | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | 2¢ |
| Austin Cindric | 2% | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | 2¢ |
| Chase Elliott | — | 1¢ on Polymarket US | 1¢ | 1¢ |
| William Byron | — | 1¢ on Polymarket US | 1¢ | 1¢ |
| Carson Hocevar | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | 1¢ |
| Connor Zilisch | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | — |
| Ross Chastain | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | — |
| Chris Buescher | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | 1¢ |
| Alex Bowman | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | — |
| Kyle Busch | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Berry | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | — |
| Brad Keselowski | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | — |
| Ryan Preece | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | 1¢ |
| Erik Jones | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | 1¢ |
| Austin Dillon | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | — |
| Zane Smith | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | — |
| Ty Dillon | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | — |
| John Hunter Nemechek | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | — |
| Cole Custer | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | — |
| Cody Ware | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | — |
| AJ Allmendinger | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | — |
| Noah Gragson | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | — |
| Riley Herbst | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | — |
| Shane Van Gisbergen | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | — |
| Todd Gilliland | — | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/2670?via=md)
- [Polymarket US](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/299650?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/nascar-cup-series-champion-nascar-cup-series.

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