---
title: "NATO downs another Russian drone by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/nato-downs-another-russian-drone-by-polymarket-97aeb484
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-10-31T23:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 5778.65
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:21:20+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/nato-downs-another-russian-drone-by-polymarket-97aeb484
---

# NATO downs another Russian drone by...?

Live · $5,779 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a NATO military downs another Russian drone by any means (kinetic, jammer, etc.) between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM Kyiv Time.

A “Russian drone” refers to any drone that, based on a consensus of credible reporting, was launched from territory under Russia’s de facto control or was operated or directed by Russian forces. Where attribution remains ambiguous, the drone’s model and characteristics will be considered supporting evidence.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (CEST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the incident, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## September 30

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 3.6¢ on Polymarket | 3.6¢ |
| No | 98% | 99¢ on Polymarket | 99¢ |

## Other markets

- October 15 — 2 outcomes
- October 31 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/595876?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/nato-downs-another-russian-drone-by-polymarket-97aeb484.

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