---
title: "Natural Disaster in 2026?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/natural-disaster-in-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-03-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 248017.11
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T05:59:41+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/natural-disaster-in-2026
---

# Natural Disaster in 2026?

Live · $248,017 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:

- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. 

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 94% | 94¢ on Polymarket | 94¢ |
| Yes | 7% | 7¢ on Polymarket | 7¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/5316?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/natural-disaster-in-2026.

BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.