---
title: "New York M vs Philadelphia"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/new-york-m-vs-philadelphia
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-16T23:10:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-07-23T23:10:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-17T00:59:47+00:00
total_volume_usd: 18725268.35
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "Baseball"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T13:41:36+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/new-york-m-vs-philadelphia
---

# New York M vs Philadelphia

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-16 23:10 UTC · $18,725,268 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**New York Mets** won. Settled 2026-07-17.

## About

This is the first game of the second half of the MLB season, played at Citizens Bank Park. The data is rich and recent. I have enough to write the description now.

The Philadelphia Phillies are the narrow favourite in this season-opening second-half matchup at Citizens Bank Park, but prediction markets are pricing the game as notably tight. On Kalshi — which carries the bulk of the $2.1 million in total volume — the Phillies are listed at 55.0%, while Polymarket's moneyline market puts them at 54.9%, a near-identical read with a cross-platform spread of just 0.05 percentage points. The Mets counter at 45.1% on Polymarket and 46.0% on Kalshi, a 0.95-point gap that represents the widest divergence in the dataset. Philadelphia enters at 54–43 while New York stands at 40–57. The Mets mustered just four runs in a three-game sweep at the hands of the Red Sox heading into the All-Star break. The Phillies, meanwhile, took two of three in Detroit to come home on a high note.

The pitching matchup helps explain why the gap isn't wider. Aaron Nola carries a 3–6 record and a 5.75 ERA for Philadelphia, with that ERA jumping to 6.81 at home, where he has yet to record a win this season. Christian Scott threw five shutout innings against the Royals in his last start, after allowing 9 earned runs in 13 innings across his three previous outings. The totals markets lean heavily toward a high-scoring game: Kalshi prices over 3.5 combined runs at 94.0% and over 9.5 runs at 50.0%, reflecting both offenses' capacity to produce despite the starter struggles. Both Aaron Nola and Christian Scott recording 3+ strikeouts each sit at 90.0%+ on Kalshi, signalling confidence in meaningful starter involvement.

Both Polymarket and Kalshi agree on Philadelphia as a slight favourite, but at roughly 55%, the market is essentially calling this a coin flip with a modest Phillies edge — consistent with the home-field advantage at Citizens Bank Park offsetting Nola's uneven home record.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-16; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- A.J. Ewing: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total Runs — 11 outcomes
- Spread — 6 outcomes
- Team Total — 14 outcomes
- Total Bases — 26 outcomes
- Outs Recorded — 2 outcomes
- Strikeouts — 15 outcomes
- Hits + Runs + RBIs — 25 outcomes
- Home Runs — 11 outcomes
- Hits — 18 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Total — 7 outcomes
- First 5 Innings — 3 outcomes
- First 3 Innings — 3 outcomes
- First 7 Innings — 3 outcomes
- First 5 Spread — 4 outcomes
- Extra Innings — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 9.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread -2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 3.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 4.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 5.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 6.5 — 2 outcomes
- Stolen Bases — 17 outcomes
- RBIs — 29 outcomes
- NRFI — 2 outcomes
- A.J. Ewing: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread -1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Bo Bichette: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 10.5 — 2 outcomes
- Bo Bichette: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Brandon Marsh: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Brandon Marsh: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Bryce Harper: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Bryce Harper: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Carson Benge: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Carson Benge: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Francisco Lindor: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Francisco Lindor: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Jorge Polanco: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- … and 13 more

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/30182?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/33844?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/new-york-m-vs-philadelphia.

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