---
title: "Next Gemini Argon released by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/next-gemini-argon-released-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-02-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 6454.62
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T04:31:09+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/next-gemini-argon-released-by
---

# Next Gemini Argon released by...?

Live · $6,455 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Argon model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Argon" and be a new Gemini Argon model release designated as newer than Gemini 4 Argon (gemini-4-argon, released October 13, 2026), regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors, including decimal version increases, new whole-number generations, or newer dated builds. For example, a newer Argon model named in the same manner as Gemini 4 Argon, including a decimal increase such as a 4.1 or a new whole-number generation such as a Gemini 5 Argon, or a newer Argon release under a new, distinct model identifier, would qualify, while Gemini 4 Argon itself, including any rollout, promotion, snapshot, price change, or thinking-level setting of it, and models whose name does not include "Argon," such as Gemini Pro, Gemini Flash, or Gemini Flash-Lite models, will not qualify. A qualifying release must carry a new, distinct model identifier; updates published under an unchanged identifier will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## January 31

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 19% | 20¢ on Polymarket | 20¢ |
| No | 81% | 82¢ on Polymarket | 82¢ |

## Other markets

- December 31 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/846796?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/next-gemini-argon-released-by).

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