--- title: "Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond — Before 2030" canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/next-james-bond-film-actor-cast-as-james-bond-before-2030 status: live trading_closes_at: 2030-01-01T15:00:00+00:00 total_volume_usd: 5680090.7 venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket", "Polymarket US"] categories: ["Entertainment"] prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T04:07:51+00:00 publisher: BetCrypto data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/next-james-bond-film-actor-cast-as-james-bond-before-2030 --- # Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond — Before 2030 Live · $5,680,091 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US ## About This market asks which actor will be cast as the next James Bond, with each outcome naming a candidate. It is listed on Kalshi and Polymarket with about $5.0 million in combined volume. Polymarket US also lists it but has no volume or liquidity. The deadlines differ. Kalshi's contract runs to before 2030 and covers the next official film in the series. Polymarket requires an official announcement by December 31, 2026, and resolves to "No Bond chosen" if none comes. Callum Turner is the clear favourite at a 65.5% consensus. That is roughly three times the 21.4% for second-placed Jack Lowden, signalling that traders see a fairly concentrated race. "No Bond chosen," offered only on Polymarket, sits at 11.9%. The rest of the field trails in single digits, including Robert Pattinson at 8.5% and Nicholas Hoult at 7.0%, both quoted only on Kalshi. The widest gap is on Turner, whom Kalshi prices at 71.0% against 60.1% on Polymarket, a spread of about 11 points. Lowden shows a smaller split of 23.5% on Kalshi versus 19.3% on Polymarket. Kalshi is also notably richer on Jack Barton (10.5% vs 3.4%) and Aaron Taylor-Johnson (6.5% vs 0.2%). Part of this may reflect Kalshi's longer resolution window. Overall, Kalshi consistently prices named candidates higher than Polymarket, most materially for the frontrunner, Callum Turner. _AI-written summary written 2026-11-03; its figures date from then — the table below is live._ ## Main market | Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | Callum Turner | 39% | 36¢ on Polymarket | 41¢ | 36¢ | 39¢ | | Josh O'Connor | 28% | 25¢ on Polymarket | 30¢ | 25¢ | 26¢ | | Robert Pattinson | 18% | 18¢ on Kalshi | 19¢ | 27¢ | — | | Jack Lowden | 16% | 18¢ on Polymarket | 20¢ | 18¢ | 18¢ | | Nicholas Hoult | 16% | 17¢ on Kalshi | 17¢ | — | — | | No Bond chosen | 14% | 16¢ on Polymarket | — | 16¢ | — | | Nicholas Galitzine | 4% | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | 5¢ | 0.1¢ | — | | Jack Barton | 4% | 2.4¢ on Polymarket | 6¢ | 2.4¢ | 3¢ | | Aaron Taylor-Johnson | 4% | 0.3¢ on Polymarket | 8¢ | 0.3¢ | — | | Theo James | 3% | 0.5¢ on Polymarket | 6¢ | 0.5¢ | — | | Harris Dickinson | 3% | 0.3¢ on Polymarket | 5¢ | 0.3¢ | — | | Aaron Pierre | 3% | 4¢ on Kalshi | 4¢ | — | — | | Damson Idris | 3% | 3¢ on Kalshi | 3¢ | — | — | | Tom Holland | 3% | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | 3¢ | 0.1¢ | — | | Jacob Elordi | 2% | 0.3¢ on Polymarket | 5¢ | 0.3¢ | — | | Tom Francis | 2% | 1.3¢ on Polymarket | 4¢ | 1.3¢ | 2¢ | | Jack O'Connell | 2% | 0.2¢ on Polymarket | 5¢ | 0.2¢ | — | | James Norton | 2% | 0.3¢ on Polymarket | 4¢ | 0.3¢ | — | | Paul Mescal | 2% | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | 2¢ | 0.1¢ | — | | Regé-Jean Page | 2% | 2¢ on Kalshi | 2¢ | — | — | | Idris Elba | 2% | 2¢ on Kalshi | 2¢ | — | — | | Tom Blyth | 2% | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | 2¢ | 0.1¢ | — | | Tom Hardy | 2% | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | 2¢ | 0.1¢ | — | | Jonathan Bailey | 2% | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | 2¢ | 0.1¢ | — | | George MacKay | 2% | 2¢ on Kalshi | 2¢ | — | — | | Henry Cavill | 2% | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | 2¢ | 0.1¢ | — | | Charlie Hunnam | 2% | 2¢ on Kalshi | 2¢ | — | — | | Scott Rose-Marsh | 2% | 2¢ on Kalshi | 2¢ | — | — | | Henry Ashton | 2% | 2¢ on Kalshi | 2¢ | — | — | | David Gyasi | 2% | 2¢ on Kalshi | 2¢ | — | — | | Richard Madden | 1% | 0.2¢ on Polymarket | 3¢ | 0.2¢ | — | | Joe Alwyn | 1% | 0.2¢ on Polymarket | 3¢ | 0.2¢ | — | | Pierce Brosnan | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | 0.1¢ | — | | Robert James-Collier | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | 0.1¢ | — | | Timothee Chalamet | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | 0.1¢ | — | | Michael B Jordan | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | 0.1¢ | — | | Cillian Murphy | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | — | — | | Luke Evans | — | — | — | — | — | ## Open on a venue - [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/292528?via=md) - [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/6753?via=md) - [Polymarket US](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/1121753?via=md) --- Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/next-james-bond-film-actor-cast-as-james-bond-before-2030). BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.