---
title: "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-starmer-or-petro
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 906337.62
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T06:12:30+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-starmer-or-petro
---

# Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)

Live · $906,338 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| None before 2027 | 41% | 41¢ on Polymarket | 41¢ |
| Netanyahu - Israel PM | 26% | 27¢ on Polymarket | 27¢ |
| Sánchez - Spanish PM | 13% | 15¢ on Polymarket | 15¢ |
| Lecornu - France PM | 5% | 5.8¢ on Polymarket | 5.8¢ |
| Lula da Silva - Brazil President | 2% | 2.5¢ on Polymarket | 2.5¢ |
| Merz - German Chancellor | 2% | 1.7¢ on Polymarket | 1.7¢ |
| Abbas - President of Palestine | 1% | 1.8¢ on Polymarket | 1.8¢ |
| Takaichi - Japan PM | 1% | 2¢ on Polymarket | 2¢ |
| Erdoğan - Türkiye President | 1% | 1.5¢ on Polymarket | 1.5¢ |
| Trump - USA President | 1% | 1.1¢ on Polymarket | 1.1¢ |
| Zelenskyy - Ukraine President | 0.8% | 1¢ on Polymarket | 1¢ |
| Díaz-Canel - Cuba President | 0.7% | 0.7¢ on Polymarket | 0.7¢ |
| al-Sharaa - Syria President | 0.6% | 1¢ on Polymarket | 1¢ |
| Putin - Russia President | 0.5% | 0.8¢ on Polymarket | 0.8¢ |
| Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President | 0.5% | 0.7¢ on Polymarket | 0.7¢ |
| Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea | 0.4% | 0.6¢ on Polymarket | 0.6¢ |
| Milei - Argentina President | 0.4% | 0.7¢ on Polymarket | 0.7¢ |
| Xi - General Secretary of the CCP | 0.4% | 0.5¢ on Polymarket | 0.5¢ |
| Macron - France President | 0.2% | 0.2¢ on Polymarket | 0.2¢ |
| Albanese - Australia PM | 0.2% | 0.2¢ on Polymarket | 0.2¢ |
| Newsom - California Governor | 0.2% | 0.2¢ on Polymarket | 0.2¢ |
| Sheinbaum - Mexico President | 0.2% | 0.2¢ on Polymarket | 0.2¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/6609?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-starmer-or-petro.

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