---
title: "Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/next-muse-spark-model-14-released-on-polymarket-8e205b9a
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-12-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 6807.11
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T04:31:32+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/next-muse-spark-model-14-released-on-polymarket-8e205b9a
---

# Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?

Live · $6,807 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 26 | 17% | 32¢ on Polymarket | 32¢ |
| November 23 | 5% | 9.8¢ on Polymarket | 9.8¢ |
| November 28 | 5% | 8¢ on Polymarket | 8¢ |
| November 21 | 4% | 7¢ on Polymarket | 7¢ |
| November 16 | 4% | 8.1¢ on Polymarket | 8.1¢ |
| November 12 | 4% | 7¢ on Polymarket | 7¢ |
| November 29 | 3% | 5.9¢ on Polymarket | 5.9¢ |
| November 13 | 3% | 6.1¢ on Polymarket | 6.1¢ |
| November 14 | 3% | 4.6¢ on Polymarket | 4.6¢ |
| November 18 | 3% | 5.5¢ on Polymarket | 5.5¢ |
| November 22 | 3% | 4.9¢ on Polymarket | 4.9¢ |
| November 30 | 3% | 4¢ on Polymarket | 4¢ |
| November 10 | 2% | 4.5¢ on Polymarket | 4.5¢ |
| November 8 | 2% | 2.1¢ on Polymarket | 2.1¢ |
| November 15 | 2% | 2.9¢ on Polymarket | 2.9¢ |
| November 19 | 0.5% | 1¢ on Polymarket | 1¢ |
| November 11 | 0.2% | 0.2¢ on Polymarket | 0.2¢ |
| November 17 | 0.2% | 0.2¢ on Polymarket | 0.2¢ |
| On or prior to November 3 | — | — | — |
| November 4 | — | — | — |
| November 5 | — | — | — |
| November 6 | — | — | — |
| November 7 | — | — | — |
| November 9 | — | 41¢ on Polymarket | 41¢ |
| November 20 | — | 22¢ on Polymarket | 22¢ |
| November 24 | — | 39¢ on Polymarket | 39¢ |
| November 25 | — | 48¢ on Polymarket | 48¢ |
| November 27 | — | 50¢ on Polymarket | 50¢ |
| No release by November 30 | — | 82¢ on Polymarket | 82¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/1124910?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/next-muse-spark-model-14-released-on-polymarket-8e205b9a).

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