---
title: "NL MVP Winner? — 2026 season"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/nl-mvp-winner-2026-season
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-12-08T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 4481643.88
venues: ["Gemini", "Kalshi", "Polymarket US"]
categories: ["Sports", "Baseball"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T08:17:57+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/nl-mvp-winner-2026-season
---

# NL MVP Winner? — 2026 season

Live · $4,481,644 traded · listed on Gemini, Kalshi, Polymarket US

## About

This market asks who will win the National League MVP Award for the 2026 MLB season, resolving after the season concludes in December 2026. It is listed on both Kalshi, which carries the bulk of the activity with roughly $2.92M in volume, and Gemini, where volume is much thinner at around $11.5K. Dozens of candidates are quoted, but the field has clearly narrowed to a two-horse race.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is the current favourite at a 59.0% consensus, priced at 61.0% on Gemini and 57.0% on Kalshi. Shohei Ohtani sits second at 41.5% consensus, quoted 43.0% on Gemini and 40.0% on Kalshi. Together the two candidates account for essentially the entire probability mass, with a Tie/Co-Winners outcome at 2.0% and every other named player — including Kyle Schwarber, Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, Elly De La Cruz and Paul Skenes — pinned at 1.0–1.5%.

The cross-platform spread on the top two names is a modest 2.5 points, with Kalshi consistently pricing Crow-Armstrong slightly lower and Ohtani slightly higher than Gemini. Overall, the market treats the 2026 NL MVP as a Crow-Armstrong versus Ohtani contest, with Kalshi marginally more sceptical of the favourite.

_AI-written summary written 2026-08-23; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Gemini | Kalshi | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 98% | 98¢ on Polymarket US | — | 98¢ | 98¢ |
| James Wood | 3% | 0.1¢ on Polymarket US | 4¢ | 1¢ | 0.1¢ |
| Shohei Ohtani | 1% | 2¢ on Kalshi | 5¢ | 2¢ | 2.1¢ |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5% | 0.6¢ on Polymarket US | 4¢ | 1¢ | 0.6¢ |
| Trea Turner | 0.4% | 0.6¢ on Polymarket US | — | — | 0.6¢ |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.2% | 0.2¢ on Polymarket US | — | — | 0.2¢ |
| Mickey Moniak | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Drake Baldwin | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Nico Hoerner | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Jordan Walker | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket US | 4¢ | 1¢ | 0.1¢ |
| Juan Soto | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 4¢ | 1¢ | — |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | — | 0.2¢ on Polymarket US | — | 1¢ | 0.2¢ |
| Francisco Lindor | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Corbin Carroll | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Elly De La Cruz | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket US | — | 1¢ | 0.1¢ |
| Bryce Harper | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket US | 4¢ | 1¢ | 0.1¢ |
| Rafael Devers | — | 0.2¢ on Polymarket US | — | 1¢ | 0.2¢ |
| Manny Machado | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Ketel Marte | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Mookie Betts | — | 0.3¢ on Polymarket US | — | 1¢ | 0.3¢ |
| Geraldo Perdomo | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Paul Skenes | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Jackson Merrill | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Jackson Chourio | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 4¢ | 1¢ | — |
| Alex Bregman | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Freddie Freeman | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Bo Bichette | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Matt Olson | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket US | 4¢ | 1¢ | 0.1¢ |
| Will Smith | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Teoscar Hernández | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Max Muncy | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Masyn Winn | — | — | — | — | — |
| Michael Harris II | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Brice Turang | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Oneil Cruz | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Ozzie Albies | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Hunter Goodman | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Michael Busch | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Willy Adames | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Ian Happ | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Matt Chapman | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nolan Arenado | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcus Semien | — | — | — | — | — |
| Christian Yelich | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Luis Robert Jr. | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Xander Bogaerts | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nick Castellanos | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |
| Dansby Swanson | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — |

_10 more outcomes on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Gemini](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/299951?via=md)
- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/2480?via=md)
- [Polymarket US](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/299618?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/nl-mvp-winner-2026-season.

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