---
title: "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/nothing-ever-happens-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-12-31T16:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 821164.37
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T05:58:39+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/nothing-ever-happens-2026
---

# Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Live · $821,164 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:

- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here: 
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 83% | 84¢ on Polymarket | 84¢ |
| No | 17% | 18¢ on Polymarket | 18¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/5142?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/nothing-ever-happens-2026.

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