---
title: "OK-01 House Election Winner"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/ok-01-house-election-winner
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-11-03T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 49351.26
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket", "Polymarket US"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T12:03:48+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/ok-01-house-election-winner
---

# OK-01 House Election Winner

Live · $49,351 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US

## About

This market covers the winner of Oklahoma's 1st Congressional District seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, to be decided in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. On Polymarket, the market resolves to the party of the winning candidate, while Kalshi frames it as a Yes/No on whether the sworn-in member for the 2027 term is a Democrat. Both platforms are listing the event live, with Polymarket carrying most of the volume at roughly $20,800 versus about $4,200 on Kalshi.

The Republican Party is the clear favourite, with a cross-platform consensus of 90.7%. Polymarket prices it at 90.5% and Kalshi at 90.7%, a spread of just 0.20 points, indicating tight agreement between the two venues. The Democratic side of the ledger sits at 8.5% on Polymarket, consistent with the Republican pricing there. Kalshi separately lists Democrat John Croisant as a named contract at 13.0%, which is not directly comparable to the party-level Democratic line but sits above it.

The takeaway is that Polymarket and Kalshi are aligned in treating OK-01 as a heavily Republican-favoured race, with essentially no meaningful cross-platform disagreement on the party outcome.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-11; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican Party | 97% | 96¢ on Polymarket US | 98¢ | 99¢ | 96¢ |
| Democratic | 2% | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | 3.9¢ | 0.1¢ | 4¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/1602?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/6347?via=md)
- [Polymarket US](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/301142?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/ok-01-house-election-winner.

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