---
title: "OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/openai-vs-anthropic-first-to-another-millennium-prize
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2028-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 3002.43
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T09:58:55+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/openai-vs-anthropic-first-to-another-millennium-prize
---

# OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize?

Live · $3,002 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has solved a qualifying Millennium Prize Problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET before Anthropic does so. This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has solved a qualifying Millennium Prize Problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET before OpenAI does so.

If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50. A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution.

The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify.

A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the company, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the company's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 79% | 86¢ on Polymarket | 86¢ |
| No | 22% | 29¢ on Polymarket | 29¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/485516?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/openai-vs-anthropic-first-to-another-millennium-prize.

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