---
title: "Pennsylvania mail voters: party registration margin? — As of Nov 4, 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/pennsylvania-mail-voters-party-registration-margin-as-of-nov-4-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-11-04T14:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 3212
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T12:43:24+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/pennsylvania-mail-voters-party-registration-margin-as-of-nov-4-2026
---

# Pennsylvania mail voters: party registration margin? — As of Nov 4, 2026

Live · $3,212 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

The value is the Democrat figure minus the Republican figure in the "Percent" column (share of mail ballots accepted) of the "Returned Mail Ballots by Party Registration" table on the Pennsylvania page of the UF Election Lab's 2026 Early Voting Tracker, as displayed to one decimal place at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026. The "Percent Returned" column is not used. If the page is unavailable at that time, the same percentages computed from the acceptdem, acceptrep and accept_none values for Pennsylvania in the UF Election Lab's 2026 early vote data file (https://election.lab.ufl.edu/data-downloads/earlyvote/2026/US.csv) and rounded to one decimal place are used. A negative value is a Republican lead. Each range includes both of its endpoints. Updates posted after that time are not counted.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| D+37 to D+39.9 | 25% | 28¢ on Kalshi | 28¢ |
| D+40 or more | 18% | 22¢ on Kalshi | 22¢ |
| D+31 to D+33.9 | — | — | — |
| D+34 to D+36.9 | — | — | — |
| D+28 to D+30.9 | — | — | — |
| Below D+25 | — | — | — |
| D+25 to D+27.9 | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/626992?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/pennsylvania-mail-voters-party-registration-margin-as-of-nov-4-2026.

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