---
title: "Philadelphia vs Cincinnati"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/philadelphia-vs-cincinnati
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-08T23:10:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-07-15T23:10:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-09T02:54:25+00:00
total_volume_usd: 4359787.2
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "Baseball"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T21:23:22+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/philadelphia-vs-cincinnati
---

# Philadelphia vs Cincinnati

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-08 23:10 UTC · $4,359,787 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**Cincinnati Reds** won. Settled 2026-07-09.

## About

Interesting — I need to reconcile. The event is July 8 game (Game 2), which is now live. The July 7 game was won by Phillies 4-1. So game 2 starts with Chase Burns pitching for Cincinnati. The market has Cincinnati as favourite at 57%, which makes sense given Burns' dominance.

Let me draft the description. Note: Phillies moneyline is listed at 43% Kalshi / 42% Polymarket, and Cincinnati at 62% Kalshi / 59% Polymarket per the data. Wait, checking again - the data shows Cincinnati Reds consensus 57% (Kalshi 62%, Polymarket 59%) as current favourite. That's the Game 2 pregame odds with Burns pitching.

The Cincinnati Reds are hosting the Philadelphia Phillies in the middle contest of a three-game series at Great American Ball Park, with right-hander Chase Burns (10-1, 2.40 ERA) taking the mound as their All-Star stopper. Traders across platforms have made the Reds a modest favourite: Burns brings a 1.08 WHIP across 17 starts, 116 strikeouts, an opposing batting average of .207, and a major league–leading 15 outings of two or fewer runs allowed. Kalshi prices Cincinnati at 62.0% to win, while Polymarket sits slightly lower at 59.0%, producing an 18-point cross-platform spread on the shorter side of the moneyline — Kalshi has Philadelphia at 43.0% versus Polymarket's 42.0%. The consensus favourite lands at 57.0% for the Reds.

The Burns strikeout market is the busiest side prop, with Kalshi giving him 83.0% to reach 4+ strikeouts, 60.0% for 5+, and 36.0% for 6+. Total-runs markets lean toward a moderate scoring game: over 7.5 runs sits at 61.0% and over 8.5 at 52.0% on Kalshi, with Polymarket's game total priced essentially at a coin flip around 50.5%.

The Reds' edge here is essentially a Burns premium. Philadelphia took the series

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-09; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- Spread -1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 9.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread -2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 3.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 4.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 5.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 6.5 — 2 outcomes
- Extra Innings — 2 outcomes
- Total Runs — 11 outcomes
- First 5 Innings — 3 outcomes
- Strikeouts — 8 outcomes
- Home Runs — 7 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Total — 7 outcomes
- Team Total — 14 outcomes
- Hits + Runs + RBIs — 15 outcomes
- Spread — 6 outcomes
- First 3 Innings — 3 outcomes
- Total Bases — 16 outcomes
- Hits — 11 outcomes
- First 5 Spread — 4 outcomes
- RBIs — 11 outcomes
- Stolen Bases — 4 outcomes
- First 7 Innings — 3 outcomes
- Total O/U 8.5 — 2 outcomes
- Alec Bohm: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 7.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 10.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 11.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread -3.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 12.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread -4.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 13.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 14.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 15.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread -6.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 16.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 17.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread -7.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread -5.5 — 2 outcomes
- … and 33 more

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/3790?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/9633?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/philadelphia-vs-cincinnati.

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