---
title: "Philadelphia vs Miami"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/philadelphia-vs-miami-kalshi-33e29d2f
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-29T16:10:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-08-05T16:10:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-29T18:44:31+00:00
total_volume_usd: 10612622.94
venues: ["Azuro", "Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "Baseball"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T15:41:17+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/philadelphia-vs-miami-kalshi-33e29d2f
---

# Philadelphia vs Miami

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-29 16:10 UTC · $10,612,623 traded · listed on Azuro, Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**Miami Marlins** won. Settled 2026-07-29.

## About

This is an MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins at loanDepot Park on July 29, scheduled for 12:10 PM ET. The moneyline markets — the most straightforward bet — have the Phillies as clear favourites. On Kalshi, Philadelphia is priced at 62.0%, while Polymarket sits fractionally lower at 61.0% and Azuro comes in slightly higher at 63.3%, making for a very tight cross-platform spread of just 1.0 percentage point. Miami's implied win probability sits at 40.0% on Kalshi, 39.0% on Polymarket, and 36.1% on Azuro — a modest gap that likely reflects liquidity differences rather than any meaningful disagreement.

The Phillies (57–51) are road visitors against the Marlins (54–54), with Jesús Luzardo starting for Philadelphia and Ryan Gusto taking the mound for Miami. Markets strongly favour a high-scoring affair: Harper went 1-for-3 with a two-run home run and two walks in the previous night's 8–7 loss to Miami, and Kalshi prices the game going over 2.5 total runs at 96.0%, with the over 4.5 line at 81.0%. Kyle Schwarber's absence from Tuesday's lineup due to a gastrointestinal issue may be influencing some of the player prop pricing, with his 1+ hits market on Kalshi varying widely across contract types.

Luzardo's strikeout props reflect solid confidence in his performance — Kalshi puts his 5+ strikeout line at 87.0% and 7+ at 57.0%. The spread market gives Philadelphia a 28.0% chance of winning by more than 3.5 runs. Overall, all three platforms — Kalshi, Polymarket, and Azuro — agree closely on the Phillies as moderate favourites, with the 1.0-point moneyline spread offering essentially no exploitable cross-platform gap.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-29; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- First 5 Innings Winner: Philadelphia Phillies — 2 outcomes
- Total Runs — 11 outcomes
- Spread — 6 outcomes
- Spread -1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 8.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 3.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 4.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 5.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 6.5 — 2 outcomes
- Extra Innings — 2 outcomes
- Spread -2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 7.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 9.5 — 2 outcomes
- Team Total — 14 outcomes
- First 7 Innings — 3 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Total — 7 outcomes
- First 5 Spread — 4 outcomes
- First 5 Innings — 3 outcomes
- First 3 Innings — 3 outcomes
- Alec Bohm: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Strikeouts — 16 outcomes
- Home Runs — 7 outcomes
- Hits — 12 outcomes
- Total Bases — 16 outcomes
- Hits + Runs + RBIs — 15 outcomes
- Stolen Bases — 3 outcomes
- RBIs — 40 outcomes
- NRFI — 2 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Winner: Miami Marlins — 2 outcomes
- Alec Bohm: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Winner: Draw — 2 outcomes
- Brandon Marsh: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Brandon Marsh: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Bryce Harper: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Bryce Harper: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Bryson Stott: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Bryson Stott: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Gabriel Rincones Jr.: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Gabriel Rincones Jr.: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- … and 16 more

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Azuro](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/113366?via=md)
- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/106985?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/84467?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/philadelphia-vs-miami-kalshi-33e29d2f.

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