---
title: "Philadelphia vs Miami"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/philadelphia-vs-miami
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-27T22:40:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-08-03T22:40:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-28T01:44:30+00:00
total_volume_usd: 17257019.89
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "Baseball"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T16:34:47+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/philadelphia-vs-miami
---

# Philadelphia vs Miami

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-27 22:40 UTC · $17,257,020 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**Miami Marlins** won. Settled 2026-07-28.

## About

This market covers the July 27 MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins at loanDepot park, with both Polymarket and Kalshi offering a range of outcome markets — from the full-game winner to first-inning segment results, totals, spreads, and an extensive suite of player props centred on Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, and Tyler Phillips.

The Phillies are the clear favourite, priced at 64.0% on both Polymarket and Kalshi to win the full game. Miami has dropped 12 consecutive games — a franchise record — and has yet to win since the All-Star break, which goes a long way toward explaining the market's confidence in Philadelphia. Wheeler enters at 10-2 with a 2.16 ERA, while Miami counters with Tyler Phillips at 2-5 with a 3.52 ERA. The pitching mismatch is reflected in the early-innings markets too: Kalshi puts Philadelphia winning the first five innings at 58.0% and the first seven innings at 59.0%.

On the totals side, markets are priced for a reasonably high-scoring game — Kalshi's over-2.5-runs market sits at 96.0% and over-7.5 runs reaches 52.0%, suggesting bettors expect the offenses to produce. Otto Lopez (.328 batting average) and Xavier Edwards (.289, 16 stolen bases) are Miami's most notable threats on an otherwise struggling roster. The only meaningful cross-platform spread appears on the Miami Marlins win outcome, where Kalshi prices them at 37.0% versus 36.0% on Polymarket — a negligible 1.0-point gap — meaning both platforms are effectively aligned on Philadelphia as a comfortable favourite.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-27; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- First 5 Innings Winner: Philadelphia Phillies — 2 outcomes
- Total Runs — 11 outcomes
- Team Total — 14 outcomes
- Spread — 6 outcomes
- First 5 Innings — 3 outcomes
- Alec Bohm: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- First 7 Innings — 3 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Total — 7 outcomes
- First 5 Spread — 4 outcomes
- First 3 Innings — 3 outcomes
- Spread -1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 7.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 3.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 4.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 5.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 6.5 — 2 outcomes
- Extra Innings — 2 outcomes
- Spread -2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 8.5 — 2 outcomes
- Strikeouts — 16 outcomes
- Hits + Runs + RBIs — 15 outcomes
- Home Runs — 7 outcomes
- Hits — 11 outcomes
- Total Bases — 14 outcomes
- Outs Recorded — 2 outcomes
- Stolen Bases — 8 outcomes
- RBIs — 37 outcomes
- NRFI — 2 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Winner: Miami Marlins — 2 outcomes
- Alec Bohm: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Winner: Draw — 2 outcomes
- Brandon Marsh: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Brandon Marsh: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Bryce Harper: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Bryce Harper: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Bryson Stott: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Bryson Stott: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Heriberto Hernández: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Heriberto Hernández: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- … and 16 more

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/95528?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/72180?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/philadelphia-vs-miami.

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