---
title: "PHIVOLCS raises Mayon to Alert Level 4 by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/phivolcs-raises-mayon-to-alert-level-4-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-12-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 1002.06
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T04:22:21+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/phivolcs-raises-mayon-to-alert-level-4-by
---

# PHIVOLCS raises Mayon to Alert Level 4 by...?

Live · $1,002 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) raises Mayon Volcano to Alert Level 4 or higher at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A raise directly to Alert Level 5 qualifies. A qualifying raise counts even if PHIVOLCS later lowers the alert level. Statements that the alert level may be raised, evacuation orders, and declarations by other agencies or local governments will not be considered for resolution.

Resolution turns on the time PHIVOLCS issues the bulletin or advisory raising the alert level, not the time of the underlying volcanic activity.

The resolution source for this market will be official PHIVOLCS Mayon Volcano bulletins and advisories (https://wovodat.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/bulletin/list-of-bulletin). Please note that this market is about the alert level according to PHIVOLCS, not according to any other sources.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## November 30, 2026

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 88¢ on Polymarket | 88¢ |
| No | 51% | 89¢ on Polymarket | 89¢ |

## Other markets

- November 7, 2026 — 2 outcomes
- November 15, 2026 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/1122238?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/phivolcs-raises-mayon-to-alert-level-4-by).

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