---
title: "Phoenix vs Las Vegas"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/phoenix-vs-las-vegas
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-11T00:00:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-07-12T02:00:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-12T00:29:44+00:00
total_volume_usd: 2618882.73
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "Basketball"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:02:06+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/phoenix-vs-las-vegas
---

# Phoenix vs Las Vegas

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-11 00:00 UTC · $2,618,883 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**Las Vegas Aces** won. Settled 2026-07-12.

## About

This market covers the WNBA game between the Phoenix Mercury and the Las Vegas Aces played on July 11, 2026, at Michelob Ultra Arena in Las Vegas. It appears the game has already concluded, with markets now reflecting near-certain outcomes. On the moneyline, both Polymarket and Kalshi price Las Vegas winning at 99.9% and 99.0% respectively — a negligible cross-platform spread — while Phoenix sits at just 0.5%–1.0%, effectively pricing the Mercury out of contention. The broader suite of proposition markets on Kalshi tells the same story: Las Vegas is priced at 99.0%+ to win every quarter, every half, and the full game by margins as large as 39.5 points.

The final score shows Las Vegas 99, Phoenix 66, explaining why markets have converged so sharply. The two teams split their earlier 2026 meetings, with Phoenix notably blowing out the host Aces 99–66 in the season opener on May 9. This rematch ended in a mirror-image reversal. Las Vegas, sitting at 16–6, moved into a tie with the Minnesota Lynx for the best record in the WNBA entering this game. A'ja Wilson returned from injury heading into this contest and had already recorded a double-double in her comeback game in Portland.

The 33-point final margin and uniformly maxed-out Kalshi spread markets — Las Vegas priced at 99.0%+ to win by over 27.5 points — confirm the game was effectively decided early. Both Polymarket and Kalshi are in near-perfect agreement across all outcomes, with zero meaningful cross-platform spread on any resolved or near-resolved proposition.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-12; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- Spread — 12 outcomes
- Total — 9 outcomes
- Spread -9.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 172.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 171.5 — 2 outcomes
- Points — 19 outcomes
- A'ja Wilson: Assists O/U 3.5 — 2 outcomes
- Assists — 4 outcomes
- Threes — 12 outcomes
- Rebounds — 15 outcomes
- Total O/U 170.5 — 2 outcomes
- Alyssa Thomas: Rebounds O/U 7.5 — 2 outcomes
- First Half Winner — 3 outcomes
- Spread -8.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 169.5 — 2 outcomes
- First Half Spread — 3 outcomes
- Spread -7.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 168.5 — 2 outcomes
- A'ja Wilson: Points O/U 25.5 — 2 outcomes
- Chelsea Gray: Points O/U 14.5 — 2 outcomes
- Chelsea Gray: Rebounds O/U 4.5 — 2 outcomes
- Chelsea Gray: Assists O/U 8.5 — 2 outcomes
- 1st Quarter Total — 7 outcomes
- A'ja Wilson: Points O/U 26.5 — 2 outcomes
- Chelsea Gray: Points O/U 13.5 — 2 outcomes
- 1st Quarter Winner — 3 outcomes
- 4th Quarter Winner — 3 outcomes
- 3rd Quarter Winner — 3 outcomes
- 3rd Quarter Spread — 7 outcomes
- 2nd Quarter Winner — 3 outcomes
- 2nd Quarter Total — 7 outcomes
- 2nd Quarter Spread — 7 outcomes
- Second Half Total — 7 outcomes
- 1st Quarter Spread — 7 outcomes
- Second Half Winner — 3 outcomes
- Second Half Spread — 8 outcomes
- 4th Quarter Spread — 7 outcomes
- 3rd Quarter Total — 7 outcomes
- 4th Quarter Total — 7 outcomes
- Spread -10.5 — 2 outcomes
- … and 17 more

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/17109?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/19465?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/phoenix-vs-las-vegas.

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