---
title: "Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/pittsburgh-vs-cincinnati-kalshi-e31842b5
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-31T22:10:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-08-07T22:10:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-08-01T01:14:37+00:00
total_volume_usd: 18886696.69
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "Baseball"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T18:00:36+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/pittsburgh-vs-cincinnati-kalshi-e31842b5
---

# Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-31 22:10 UTC · $18,886,697 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**Cincinnati Reds** won. Settled 2026-08-01.

## About

This July 31 NL Central matchup at Great American Ball Park pits the Pittsburgh Pirates against the Cincinnati Reds, with markets spanning the full-game moneyline, run totals, spreads, first-five-inning lines, and an extensive slate of player props. On Polymarket, a Pittsburgh win resolves "Pittsburgh Pirates"; a Reds win resolves "Cincinnati Reds." On Kalshi's moneyline market, "Yes" resolves to a Pittsburgh victory.

The Pirates are the clear favourite. Pittsburgh enters as a road favourite (line near -135), with Paul Skenes (9-9, 3.65 ERA) opposing Hunter Greene (2-2, 7.06 ERA). Polymarket gives Pittsburgh 53.0% and Kalshi 54.0%, a negligible 1.0-point spread — the only cross-platform gap in the entire slate. Skenes is 5-0 with a 1.38 ERA across seven career starts against the Reds, which helps explain the Pirates' edge despite being on the road. Greene carries a 7.06 ERA through four starts after returning from right-elbow surgery, though a 3.20 FIP suggests his results have outpaced his underlying process. The strikeout markets reflect confidence in both arms: Skenes recording 5+ strikeouts sits at 92.0% and 7+ at 71.0% on Kalshi; Greene's 5+ also prices at 84.0%. The total-runs market prices "over 2.5" at 97.0% and "over 7.5" at 53.0% on Kalshi, consistent with the total moving from 7.5 toward 8 after the Skenes-Greene matchup was confirmed.

With nearly all markets listed solely on Kalshi (which dominates volume at over $1.7M across the event), cross-platform arbitrage is essentially absent. The Polymarket moneyline is the one market with dual-platform pricing, but the 1-point spread is too thin to exploit meaningfully — both platforms align tightly on Pittsburgh as a modest favourite heading into first pitch.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-31; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- First 5 Innings Winner: Pittsburgh Pirates — 2 outcomes
- Total Runs — 11 outcomes
- Spread — 6 outcomes
- Team Total — 14 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Total — 7 outcomes
- First 5 Spread — 4 outcomes
- First 5 Innings — 3 outcomes
- Spread -1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 8.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 3.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 4.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 5.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 6.5 — 2 outcomes
- Extra Innings — 2 outcomes
- Spread -2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 7.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 9.5 — 2 outcomes
- Brandon Lowe: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Strikeouts — 16 outcomes
- Total Bases — 4 outcomes
- Outs Recorded — 2 outcomes
- Stolen Bases — 14 outcomes
- RBIs — 37 outcomes
- Hits + Runs + RBIs — 89 outcomes
- Home Runs — 36 outcomes
- Hits — 55 outcomes
- Total O/U 10.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 11.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 12.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 13.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 14.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 15.5 — 2 outcomes
- NRFI — 2 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Winner: Cincinnati Reds — 2 outcomes
- Brandon Lowe: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Winner: Draw — 2 outcomes
- Bryan Reynolds: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Bryan Reynolds: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Elly De La Cruz: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- … and 21 more

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/126398?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/99343?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/pittsburgh-vs-cincinnati-kalshi-e31842b5.

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