---
title: "Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/pittsburgh-vs-cincinnati
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-30T23:10:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-08-06T23:10:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-31T02:19:33+00:00
total_volume_usd: 15651883.41
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "Baseball"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T20:28:05+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/pittsburgh-vs-cincinnati
---

# Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-30 23:10 UTC · $15,651,883 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**Cincinnati Reds** won. Settled 2026-07-31.

## About

This is a July 30 MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds, played at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. The moneyline market — the most liquid event with over $4.25M in Kalshi volume alone — asks simply whether Pittsburgh wins. The Cincinnati Reds are the current favourite at 68.0% on Kalshi, while Polymarket prices them at 75.0%, a notable 7-point cross-platform spread. Pittsburgh sits at 33.0% on Kalshi and just 25.0% on Polymarket, a divergence of 8 points, suggesting Polymarket traders are more decisively backing Cincinnati.

Pittsburgh enters at 55–54 (third in the NL Central) while Cincinnati stands at 50–57 (fifth), with ESPN Analytics giving the Reds just a 37.5% win probability — somewhat softer than the prediction-market consensus. The Pirates are coming off a 3–0 shutout loss to Arizona and have dropped five straight games against left-handed starters, going 9–23 against southpaws this season — but Cincinnati's starter is right-hander Rhett Lowder, potentially neutralising that weakness. The Reds arrive having lost two of three to Cleveland, so neither side enters in strong form. Kalshi also hosts a rich slate of Elly De La Cruz player-prop markets, with his hitting line (1+ hits) priced at 99.0% and his home-run market drawing over $211K in volume. Across platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket broadly agree on Cincinnati as favourite, but the 7–8 point spread on the moneyline outcomes is the most meaningful cross-platform discrepancy in the entire market.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-31; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- First 5 Innings Winner: Pittsburgh Pirates — 2 outcomes
- Total Runs — 11 outcomes
- Spread — 6 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Total — 7 outcomes
- First 5 Innings — 3 outcomes
- Spread -1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 9.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 3.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 4.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 5.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 6.5 — 2 outcomes
- Extra Innings — 2 outcomes
- Spread -2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 8.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 10.5 — 2 outcomes
- Rhett Lowder: Strikeouts O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Strikeouts — 8 outcomes
- Home Runs — 2 outcomes
- Total Bases — 77 outcomes
- Stolen Bases — 18 outcomes
- RBIs — 45 outcomes
- Hits + Runs + RBIs — 88 outcomes
- Hits — 59 outcomes
- Team Total — 14 outcomes
- Total O/U 7.5 — 2 outcomes
- NRFI — 2 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Winner: Cincinnati Reds — 2 outcomes
- Rhett Lowder: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 — 2 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Winner: Draw — 2 outcomes
- Rhett Lowder: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/116900?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/92281?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/pittsburgh-vs-cincinnati.

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