---
title: "Prado vs Bonfim"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/prado-vs-bonfim-kalshi-a04d203d
status: live
kickoff_at: 2026-10-10T22:40:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-10-24T22:40:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 79747.6
venues: ["Gemini", "Kalshi", "Novig", "Polymarket", "Polymarket US"]
categories: ["Sports", "MMA"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T09:02:24+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/prado-vs-bonfim-kalshi-a04d203d
---

# Prado vs Bonfim

Live · kickoff 2026-10-10 22:40 UTC · $79,748 traded · listed on Gemini, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US

## About

The following market refers to the Prado vs Bonfim professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Oct 10, 2026. If this fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within two weeks). If the fight is declared a tie or no contest, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules.

This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Moneyline

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Gemini | Kalshi | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Prado | 54% | 53¢ on Polymarket | 54¢ | 54¢ | 54¢ | 53¢ | 54¢ |
| Ismael Bonfim | 47% | 47¢ on Gemini | 47¢ | 47¢ | 47¢ | 48¢ | 47¢ |

## Other markets

- Total O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Fight won by decision? — 2 outcomes
- Ends before Round 2? — 2 outcomes
- Ends before Round 3? — 2 outcomes
- Bonfim in Round 1 — 2 outcomes
- Bonfim in Round 2 — 2 outcomes
- Bonfim in Round 3 — 2 outcomes
- Prado in Round 1 — 2 outcomes
- Prado in Round 2 — 2 outcomes
- Prado in Round 3 — 2 outcomes
- Decision or Draw — 2 outcomes
- Fight ends before Round 3 begins — 2 outcomes
- Decision — 2 outcomes
- Go the Distance — 2 outcomes
- KO/TKO/DQ — 2 outcomes
- Decision / Draw / No Contest — 2 outcomes
- I. Bonfim by Decision — 2 outcomes
- Fight ends before Round 2 begins — 2 outcomes
- F. Prado by KO/TKO/DQ — 2 outcomes
- Submission — 2 outcomes
- F. Prado by Decision — 2 outcomes
- I. Bonfim by KO/TKO/DQ — 2 outcomes
- F. Prado by Submission — 2 outcomes
- I. Bonfim by Submission — 2 outcomes
- Draw — 2 outcomes
- Fight to Go the Distance? — 2 outcomes
- Fight won by KO/TKO? — 2 outcomes
- Bonfim to win by KO/TKO? — 2 outcomes
- Prado to win by KO/TKO? — 2 outcomes
- Fight won by submission? — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Gemini](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/726160?via=md)
- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/728624?via=md)
- [Novig](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/688737?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/635252?via=md)
- [Polymarket US](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/668041?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/prado-vs-bonfim-kalshi-a04d203d.

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