---
title: "Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/predicted-fed-rate-under-each-fed-chair
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 161600.75
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: []
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T12:04:08+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/predicted-fed-rate-under-each-fed-chair
---

# Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

Live · $161,601 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.

This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.

The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:

1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.

Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Waller & Rate ≤ 2.5% | — | — | — |
| Kevin Hassett & Rate ≤ 2.5% | — | — | — |
| Kevin Warsh & Rate ≤ 2.5% | 3% | 4.8¢ on Polymarket | 4.8¢ |
| Rick Rieder & Rate ≤ 2.5% | — | — | — |
| Christopher Waller & Rate > 2.5% | — | — | — |
| Kevin Hassett & Rate > 2.5% | — | — | — |
| Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5% | 96% | 98¢ on Polymarket | 98¢ |
| Rick Rieder & Rate > 2.5% | — | — | — |
| Other | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/5406?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/predicted-fed-rate-under-each-fed-chair.

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