---
title: "Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? — Before Jan 3, 2027"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/reddest-state-to-elect-a-democratic-senator-in-2026-before-jan-3-2027
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-03T13:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 137122.05
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T13:23:06+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/reddest-state-to-elect-a-democratic-senator-in-2026-before-jan-3-2027
---

# Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? — Before Jan 3, 2027

Live · $137,122 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

A state's 2024 margin is Donald Trump's share of that state's certified 2024 presidential vote minus Kamala Harris's share, per the Federal Election Commission's official 2024 presidential general election results. The margin is negative where Harris won. A state qualifies only if the certified winner of its 2026 regular or special U.S. Senate election, after any required runoff or ranked-choice tabulation, is listed on the general-election ballot as a Democrat (including Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party). Independent and third-party winners do NOT count, even if they caucus with Democrats. Each state's winner is as certified by that state's official election authority.

An unlisted qualifying state with the highest margin, or no qualifying state, makes every named market resolve NO.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 37% | 37¢ on Kalshi | 37¢ |
| Kansas | 23% | 24¢ on Kalshi | 24¢ |
| North Carolina | 10% | 11¢ on Kalshi | 11¢ |
| South Carolina | 10% | 10¢ on Kalshi | 10¢ |
| Alaska | 9% | 10¢ on Kalshi | 10¢ |
| Mississippi | 6% | 8¢ on Kalshi | 8¢ |
| Iowa | 5% | 5¢ on Kalshi | 5¢ |
| Ohio | 3% | 3¢ on Kalshi | 3¢ |
| Louisiana | 2% | 2¢ on Kalshi | 2¢ |
| New Hampshire | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ |
| Virginia | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ |
| Michigan | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ |
| Minnesota | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ |
| Georgia | — | 2¢ on Kalshi | 2¢ |
| Montana | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ |
| Florida | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/608777?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/reddest-state-to-elect-a-democratic-senator-in-2026-before-jan-3-2027.

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