---
title: "Republicans favored to win the Senate on Nate Silver's Bulletin by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/republicans-favored-to-win-the-senate-on-nate-silvers-bulletin-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-11-01T03:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 4975.47
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:52:03+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/republicans-favored-to-win-the-senate-on-nate-silvers-bulletin-by
---

# Republicans favored to win the Senate on Nate Silver's Bulletin by...?

Live · $4,975 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point by the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the Silver Bulletin Flipr Forecast of the 2026 Senate election gives Republicans a greater than 50% chance to control the United States Senate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A 50.0% chance shall not be sufficient to resolve this market. 

The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2026 Flipr Forecast of Senate control, using the "Deluxe" version of the forecast, that can be found at  https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model. 

Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the forecast will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If either Silver Bulletin or Flipr rebrand or otherwise change names or urls, this market will resolve based on the clearly-identified successor, should one exist. If Silver Bulletin's "Deluxe" Flipr model becomes permanently unavailable, the "Classic" model will be used.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## October 31

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | 19¢ on Polymarket | 19¢ |
| No | 86% | 90¢ on Polymarket | 90¢ |

## Other markets

- August 31 — 2 outcomes
- September 15 — 2 outcomes
- September 30 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/309778?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/republicans-favored-to-win-the-senate-on-nate-silvers-bulletin-by.

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