---
title: "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-07-01T03:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 8367168.06
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:47:07+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by
---

# Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Live · $8,367,168 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.

A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.

Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.

Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.

If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## January 31, 2027

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 23% | 23¢ on Polymarket | 23¢ |
| No | 78% | 78¢ on Polymarket | 78¢ |

## Other markets

- February 28, 2027 — 2 outcomes
- March 31, 2027 — 2 outcomes
- April 30, 2027 — 2 outcomes
- May 31 — 2 outcomes
- May 31, 2027 — 2 outcomes
- June 30 — 2 outcomes
- June 30, 2027 — 2 outcomes
- July 31, 2027 — 2 outcomes
- August 31 — 2 outcomes
- August 31, 2027 — 2 outcomes
- September 30, 2027 — 2 outcomes
- October 31, 2027 — 2 outcomes
- October 31 — 2 outcomes
- November 30, 2027 — 2 outcomes
- November 30 — 2 outcomes
- December 31, 2027 — 2 outcomes
- December 31 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/4928?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by.

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