---
title: "San Diego vs Miami"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/san-diego-vs-miami-kalshi-f1879c04
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-24T23:10:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-07-31T23:10:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-25T02:24:30+00:00
total_volume_usd: 6636151.22
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "Baseball"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T15:43:26+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/san-diego-vs-miami-kalshi-f1879c04
---

# San Diego vs Miami

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-24 23:10 UTC · $6,636,151 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**San Diego Padres** won. Settled 2026-07-25.

## About

This is a July 24 game between the San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins at loanDepot Park. The game was scheduled for 7:10 PM ET and the snapshot is from before the game concluded. Let me write the description using the data and search results.

The markets listed cover the July 24 MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins at loanDepot Park in Miami. The headline moneyline market — live on both Polymarket and Kalshi — asks simply which team wins, with San Diego the current favourite at 56.0% on Kalshi and 54.0% on Polymarket, a modest 2-point cross-platform spread. Miami is priced at 45.0% on Kalshi and 48.0% on Polymarket, reflecting a slight disagreement between the two venues. Kalshi also hosts a rich spread of prop and totals markets: the over-3.5-runs market sits at 91.0%, over-5.5 runs at 69.0%, and the full-game total over-9-runs market is nearly even, pointing to expectations of a moderately high-scoring affair.

The lean toward San Diego is notable given the context. Both teams entered this series on losing streaks — the Padres two in a row, the Marlins a punishing nine straight. Miami had come crashing down after a strong mid-July run, with their offense averaging just 2.55 runs per game since July 10. Meanwhile, San Diego's lineup had averaged 6.71 runs per game since the All-Star break. Germán Márquez gets the start for the Padres, with Kalshi pricing his 2+ strikeouts market at 99.0%. Fernando Tatis Jr.'s 1+ hits prop sits at 79.0% on Kalshi, reflecting steady confidence in his participation. On the Miami side, Otto Lopez leads the Marlins with a .332 average, while Griffin Conine has been hot, going 10-for-29 with four home runs over his last ten games.

Both Polymarket and Kalshi agree San Diego is a slim favourite, with the 2–3 point moneyline spread between platforms representing minimal arbitrage signal; the broader market picture is consistent across venues.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-25; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- First 5 Innings Winner: San Diego Padres — 2 outcomes
- Total Runs — 11 outcomes
- Team Total — 14 outcomes
- Spread — 6 outcomes
- Strikeouts — 6 outcomes
- Spread -1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 9.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 3.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 4.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 5.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 6.5 — 2 outcomes
- Extra Innings — 2 outcomes
- Spread -2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 8.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 10.5 — 2 outcomes
- Home Runs — 6 outcomes
- Total Bases — 14 outcomes
- RBIs — 8 outcomes
- Hits — 11 outcomes
- Fernando Tatis Jr.: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Hits + Runs + RBIs — 88 outcomes
- Stolen Bases — 14 outcomes
- Total O/U 7.5 — 2 outcomes
- NRFI — 2 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Winner: Miami Marlins — 2 outcomes
- Fernando Tatis Jr.: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Winner: Draw — 2 outcomes
- Heriberto Hernández: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Heriberto Hernández: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Jackson Merrill: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Jackson Merrill: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Javier Sanoja: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Javier Sanoja: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Kyle Stowers: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Kyle Stowers: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Liam Hicks: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Liam Hicks: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Luis Campusano: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Luis Campusano: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- … and 6 more

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/81476?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/53623?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/san-diego-vs-miami-kalshi-f1879c04.

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