---
title: "September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/september-2026-temperature-increase-oc
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-11-02T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 5671.65
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T09:39:05+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/september-2026-temperature-increase-oc
---

# September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Live · $5,672 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.

The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| <1.30ºC | 3% | 5.8¢ on Polymarket | 5.8¢ |
| 1.30–1.34ºC | 3% | 5.9¢ on Polymarket | 5.9¢ |
| 1.35–1.39ºC | 90% | 97¢ on Polymarket | 97¢ |
| 1.40–1.44ºC | — | — | — |
| 1.45–1.49ºC | 2% | 2.9¢ on Polymarket | 2.9¢ |
| >1.49ºC | 1% | 1.8¢ on Polymarket | 1.8¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/398369?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/september-2026-temperature-increase-oc.

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