--- title: "Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?" canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/shipping-successfully-targeted-in-hormuz-on status: ended trading_closes_at: 2026-09-30T19:59:00+00:00 total_volume_usd: 182400.29 venues: ["Polymarket"] categories: ["Markets", "World"] prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T19:45:44+00:00 publisher: BetCrypto data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/shipping-successfully-targeted-in-hormuz-on --- # Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...? Ended · $182,400 traded · listed on Polymarket ## About This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea. No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. _From Polymarket's listing._ ## September 22 | Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket | |---|---|---|---| | Yes | — | — | 7.7¢ | | No | — | — | 100¢ | ## Other markets - September 17 — 2 outcomes - September 18 — 2 outcomes - September 19 — 2 outcomes - September 20 — 2 outcomes - September 21 — 2 outcomes - September 23 — 2 outcomes - September 24 — 2 outcomes - September 25 — 2 outcomes - September 26 — 2 outcomes - September 27 — 2 outcomes - September 28 — 2 outcomes - September 29 — 2 outcomes - September 30 — 2 outcomes _Every market's prices are on the event page._ ## Open on a venue - [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/554450?via=md) --- Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/shipping-successfully-targeted-in-hormuz-on. BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.