---
title: "SNS-led list margin of victory in Serbia? — On Oct 25, 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/sns-led-list-margin-of-victory-in-serbia-on-oct-25-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-10-25T14:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 5445.02
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T12:39:35+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/sns-led-list-margin-of-victory-in-serbia-on-oct-25-2026
---

# SNS-led list margin of victory in Serbia? — On Oct 25, 2026

Live · $5,445 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

The margin of victory is the vote share received by the SNS-led list minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind the SNS-led list if the SNS-led list wins, or the candidate that finishes first if the SNS-led list loses. If the SNS-led list wins, the margin will be positive; if the SNS-led list loses, the margin will be negative; if the SNS-led list ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Vote share is an electoral list’s votes divided by the total number of voters who voted, including invalid ballots, as reported in the certified results of the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia; this is the basis of the Commission’s published percentages. A candidate means an electoral list; seats won are not used. List ranking by national vote share applies; the multi-winner candidate rule does not apply to this list margin. If more than one registered list meets the SNS-led list definition, their vote shares are combined.

SNS-led list: Any formally registered electoral list containing the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).

No rounding is applied. Each threshold includes its lower bound and the maximum possible margin of 100 percentage points.

An exact tie for first that remains unresolved by expiration receives the proportional payout specified in the full rules for every range containing zero; other ranges resolve No. Certified results, the Fully-Conducted Elections provision, and accelerated resolution apply as specified in the full rules.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| SNS-led list, ≥3% | — | — | — |
| SNS-led list, ≥5% | 49% | 53¢ on Kalshi | 53¢ |
| SNS-led list, ≥10% | 28% | 32¢ on Kalshi | 32¢ |
| SNS-led list, ≥15% | 12% | 14¢ on Kalshi | 14¢ |
| SNS-led list, ≥20% | 7% | 10¢ on Kalshi | 10¢ |
| SNS-led list, ≥25% | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/636328?via=md)

---

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