---
title: "Social Security Insolvent by...? "
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/social-security-insolvent-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2029-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 928.58
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: []
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T07:56:37+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/social-security-insolvent-by
---

# Social Security Insolvent by...? 

Live · $929 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify. 

A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur. 

The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## December 31, 2027

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 12¢ on Polymarket | 12¢ |
| No | 91% | 93¢ on Polymarket | 93¢ |

## Other markets

- December 31, 2028 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/581941?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/social-security-insolvent-by.

BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.