---
title: "South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner? — In 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/south-carolina-republican-senate-special-primary-winner-in-2026
status: settled
trading_closes_at: 2027-08-11T14:00:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-08-14T21:20:42+00:00
total_volume_usd: 10099861.68
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-11T01:03:21+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/south-carolina-republican-senate-special-primary-winner-in-2026
---

# South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner? — In 2026

Settled · $10,099,862 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**Graham Nordone 5–10%** won. Settled 2026-08-14.

## About

South Carolina is holding a special Republican Senate primary on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25. Kalshi is running a straightforward "who wins" market, while Polymarket lists a companion market on the first-round margin of victory between the top two finishers. Together, they give a layered picture of both candidate strength and expected competitiveness.

On Kalshi's winner market, Ralph Norman leads at 28.0%, with Russell Fry close behind at 25.0%. Longer-shot named contenders — Pamela Evette, Nancy Mace, and Henry McMaster — sit at just 1.0% each. Polymarket's margin brackets, which are tied to the "Graham Nordone" scenario naming, cluster heaviest around a 5–10 point margin at 27.0% and under 5 points at 20.0%, tapering off toward larger margins (10–15% at 14.0%, 15–20% at 8.5%, and 20%+ at 10.0%). Candidate-specific margin outcomes on Polymarket show Norman under 5 points at roughly 7.0–8.7% and Fry under 5 at 5.5–13.0%, while a Sanford win prices near 4.9%.

Across platforms, the consensus points to a competitive two-way race between Norman and Fry, with the field expecting a relatively tight first-round finish rather than a runaway.

_AI-written summary written 2026-08-10; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/223515?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/199487?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/south-carolina-republican-senate-special-primary-winner-in-2026.

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