---
title: "S&P 500 Total Return vs Gold?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/sp-500-total-return-vs-gold
status: live
kickoff_at: 2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 28601.5
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Markets"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T11:03:07+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/sp-500-total-return-vs-gold
---

# S&P 500 Total Return vs Gold?

Live · kickoff 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC · $28,602 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

Percent return is calculated from the official open price of each asset on January 2, 2026 (the first published trading day of the calendar year) and the official closing price on December 31, 2026. For example, if the S&P 500 Total Return Index opens at $5,800 on January 2, 2026 and at $6,380 on December 31, 2026, it will be concluded that the annual percentage return of the S&P 500 TR is +10.000%.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Moneyline

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Total Return Index | 83% | 85¢ on Kalshi | 85¢ |
| Gold | 15% | 17¢ on Kalshi | 17¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/293395?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/sp-500-total-return-vs-gold.

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