---
title: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 14447902.57
venues: ["Limitless", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "Markets", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T05:17:06+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31
---

# Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Live · $14,447,903 traded · listed on Limitless, Polymarket

## About

This market asks whether Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic will return to what the market defines as "normal" by December 31, 2026. Resolution hinges on IMF Portwatch data: a "Yes" requires the 7-day moving average of transit calls (arrivals of container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships) to hit 60 or above on any date between market creation and year-end 2026. Otherwise, the market resolves "No."

Across platforms, sentiment leans heavily toward traffic not clearing that threshold. Polymarket, which carries essentially all of the $11.8M in volume, prices "No" at 82.5% and "Yes" at 17.0%. Limitless, with negligible volume and liquidity, shows "No" at 50.0% and "Yes" at 17.5%. The consensus favourite is "No" at 82.5%, a roughly 65-point lead over "Yes" at 17.5%, signalling strong conviction that the 7-day average will stay below 60 through the resolution window.

The most notable cross-platform spread is on the "No" side, where Limitless's 50.0% quote sits 32.5 points below Polymarket's 82.5%, though the Limitless market is effectively untraded. In practice, Polymarket is carrying the price discovery here, and it points decisively toward traffic remaining below normal.

_AI-written summary written 2026-09-19; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Limitless | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 82% | 82¢ on Limitless | 82¢ | 82¢ |
| Yes | 19% | 19¢ on Limitless | 19¢ | 19¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Limitless](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/571084?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/4936?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31.

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