---
title: "Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 119481.95
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T08:12:23+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-by
---

# Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?

Live · $119,482 traded · listed on Polymarket

## Result

Delisted by every venue without a result — this event will not resolve.

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## December 31, 2026

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | 16¢ on Polymarket | 16¢ |
| No | 86% | 88¢ on Polymarket | 88¢ |

## Other markets

- December 31, 2025 — 2 outcomes
- March 31, 2026 — 2 outcomes
- June 30, 2026 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/5565?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-by.

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