---
title: "Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/switzerlands-november-referendum-what-will-pass
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-11-29T00:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 14215.92
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T09:59:09+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/switzerlands-november-referendum-what-will-pass
---

# Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?

Live · $14,216 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

As of market creation, four referenda are scheduled to be held in Switzerland on November 29, 2026: 

- Issue 1: Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional funding for the AVS through an increase in VAT
- Issue 2: Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’
- Issue 3: Popular initiative ‘Yes to fair federal taxation for married couples – To finally put an end to marriage discrimination!’
- Issue 4: Amendment of 19 December 2025 to the Federal Act on War Material (LFMG)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the specified popular vote. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable, the federal counter-proposal is approved under the applicable legal threshold, regardless of any tie-breaker vote.

If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if, for any reason, the results of the respective vote are not known definitively by the date the subsequent Referendum in Switzerland is scheduled to be held.

The resolution source will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official certified referendum results published by Swiss government authorities, such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery and the information portal provided by the Swiss authorities (https://www.ch.ch/en/votes-and-elections/). Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## VAT federal decree

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 57% | 60¢ on Polymarket | 60¢ |
| No | 43% | 46¢ on Polymarket | 46¢ |

## Other markets

- Fireworks restriction initiative — 2 outcomes
- Marriage taxation initiative — 2 outcomes
- War Material amendment — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/32911?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/switzerlands-november-referendum-what-will-pass.

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