---
title: "Tampa Bay vs Boston"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/tampa-bay-vs-boston-kalshi-a429be25
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-19T17:35:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-07-19T21:35:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-19T20:09:38+00:00
total_volume_usd: 4730989.71
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "Baseball"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-11T11:35:51+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/tampa-bay-vs-boston-kalshi-a429be25
---

# Tampa Bay vs Boston

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-19 17:35 UTC · $4,730,990 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**Boston** won. Settled 2026-07-19.

## About

This Sunday afternoon game at Fenway Park features the Boston Red Sox (49-48) hosting the Tampa Bay Rays (56-41), with the moneyline market on Kalshi — the dominant platform by volume with $814,527 traded — making Boston a narrow favourite at 54.0% to Tampa Bay's 47.0%. The market asks simply whether each team wins the full nine-inning contest, with a standard postponement/delay clause keeping the market live until the rescheduled game concludes.

Boston will start Sonny Gray (11-1, 2.54 ERA), while the Rays counter with Shane McClanahan (8-5, 2.83 ERA). That pitching matchup — two of the better starters in the AL — helps explain the market's expectation of a well-played, competitive game. Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Red Sox a 54.4% win probability over the Rays, nearly identical to Kalshi's implied 54.0%, suggesting the market is well-calibrated. The Rays hold a decisive edge in the standings, which likely tempers Boston's home-field advantage on the moneyline. On the totals side, Kalshi prices the game at 98.0% to go over 1.5 runs and 86.0% to go over 4.5 runs, reflecting confidence in a reasonably active offensive game. Gray's outs market sits at 59.0% for 18+ outs (six full innings), while McClanahan's strikeout lines — 76.0% for 4+, 57.0% for 5+ — point to a competitive but likely shortened outing for each.

This event is listed exclusively on Kalshi (with a thin Polymarket first-five-innings market carrying negligible volume), so there is no meaningful cross-platform spread to evaluate — all consensus pricing reflects Kalshi's liquidity alone.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-19; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- First 5 Innings Winner: Tampa Bay Rays — 2 outcomes
- Total Runs — 11 outcomes
- Spread — 6 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Total — 7 outcomes
- First 5 Spread — 4 outcomes
- First 5 Innings — 3 outcomes
- Strikeouts — 7 outcomes
- Total Bases — 10 outcomes
- Outs Recorded — 2 outcomes
- Hits + Runs + RBIs — 85 outcomes
- Home Runs — 34 outcomes
- Hits — 59 outcomes
- RBIs — 37 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Winner: Boston Red Sox — 2 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Winner: Draw — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/42421?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/54818?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/tampa-bay-vs-boston-kalshi-a429be25.

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